Hawthorn host Adelaide tonight at the MCG in the Round 11 Thursday opener, 7:30pm AEST. The Hawks are 4-1-5 after the draw with Collingwood last week and the loss in Tasmania the week before, and welcome back Calsher Dear, Bailey Macdonald, Connor Nash and Centrals product Cam Nan on debut. Adelaide are 6-4 and the form team of the past fortnight following the Showdown win and the 68-point belting of North Melbourne last Sunday. The Crows bring two ins, with Phil Thorpe back from suspension and Lachlan Murphy returning from soreness. Out for the Hawks are Henry Hustwaite, Harry Morrison, Calsher Brand and Jasper Scaife. Out for Adelaide are Sam Berry, who is being managed, and Will Pedlar, who is the only confirmed late omission.
The Hawks Look Like a Hawks Side Again
Calsher Dear was the big inclusion all week. The 200cm forward comes back into a Hawks attack that has been short of a marking target through the past block. Connor Nash returns to give Hawthorn another body on the wing. Bailey Macdonald has had a strong VFL block. Cam Nan is the Indigenous debutant from Central Districts in the SANFL, named on the bench and likely to see minutes through the second half. Sam Mitchell told the press conference he wants to see the Hawks score in patches, not in bursts, and the Round 11 fixture against Adelaide is the form audit. The Hawks were 9th on the ladder at Round 10 and a win tonight lifts them into the eight.
The Crows Come in With the Form Line
Adelaide are missing Riley Thilthorpe again with the back complaint and Taylor Walker for the seventh straight week. Darcy Fogarty kicked three in his return against North last Sunday and is the form forward in the Crows side. Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele held their attacking shape in the win and the midfield pair of Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird carried the clearance count. Phil Thorpe, who missed Round 10 with a one-week suspension for a high tackle, comes straight back into the back six. James Peatling, fined from the Crows-Kangaroos melee, plays without sanction. Adelaide travel to the MCG on the back of a 13-day break since Round 10 and have a strong recent record against the Hawks.
Where the Markets Land
Adelaide opened around $1.45 head-to-head with the line at -10.5 and that has not moved through the week, with our reviewed bookmakers dabble, Ladbrokes and bet365 all sitting within half a point of each other. Hawks at $2.80 is the value play on the team-news fillip and the home-stadium MCG ground advantage. Game total trades on the low side for a Hawks home game, on the back of the slow Adelaide travel form. Coleman markets get an interesting test tonight. Fogarty is into single figures across the books now, and Dear is the long shot worth a re-look if he goes for four. Rankine is into the second line of Brownlow odds. Saturday brings Collingwood v West Coast at the MCG with Pendlebury's record 433rd game the headline of the round. Sydney travel to GWS in the Sydney Derby on Saturday afternoon. Full Round 11 fixture and Thursday lead-up via AFL.com.au.